Friday, April 16, 2010

The Ulu Selangor By-Election

The battle lines are drawn. With the announcement of the MIC candidate for the BN yesterday it is now battle stations. There’s so much at stake and so many permutations to draw on and being a by-election all eyes are focused on just this.
Not into politics, not before nor now, but it is too tempting when it comes to a by-election. I can still be an observer, why not? I don’t have to make a stand nor do I have to declare my political inclinations and sympathies but I can still have an opinion, yes, why not.
It was a strategic move to retain the MIC for the seat. In one stroke, the MIC stopped making noise, so also from the UMNO diehards. This is basic. What it means is that here’s no disagreement nor talk of non-cooperation from day one of campaigning from either. There could have been some disgruntled few from both (the MIC and UMNO) but these may just be personally inspired and may not matter.
Both then would have to show their best in the campaigning that follows. The MIC to justify why their candidate was chosen and UMNO to justify and stamp their strength with the shackles of the GE 2008 broken and is now history.
Likewise, the MCA would go in with vengeance. It is mainly to justify consolidation and unity and tell the world that their earlier troubles are now within control, not over yet but ok.
For the Gerakan, PPP and the smaller offshoots within the BN, well…just be there to show you are still alive not kicking but still around. They are not expected to be in the limelight, lest they spoil the broth. Just keep smiling as they have been doing after the GE 2008 debacle and ‘don’t say nothin’ (as the Americans would say)
As for the PR, they would have to take great pains to control the groundswell currently bothering them. The PKR especially is very vulnerable. Its their candidate and they have been getting the flax. What with the ongoing court case and the spate of resignations of their legislators (even until today there’s one) Not forgetting the Indians in Penang had not forgotten the Kg Buah Pala fiasco. There were reports of mass, en-bloc resignations of members, even. And here they are trying to woo the Indian votes!
Let’s see how the candidates stacked up. Kamalanathan, the MIC candidate is squeaky clean, up-and-coming,young, a PR person (read: Public Relations) and a blogger to boot – and with no known baggage.
The PKR’s Zaid is a high powered, and a high profiled person, used to being a ‘de facto’ Minister monetarily strong, was slapped with suspension/sacked? on money politics when in UMNO (but vehemently pleaded innocence) – with some baggage no doubt.
My take on the outcome? The MIC candidate will find solace in being a ‘local boy’ and can well relate with the younger set MIC or otherwise.
The PKR, has imposed a helicopter candidate (half the hall left when his candidature was announced) who had jumped ship ( may well be reminiscent of V. David’s answer when asked why he changed parties from Socialist Front to Pekemas and then DAP. He said that there’s nothing wrong with him but all the parties he left were wrong )

If Zaid wins it is said he may be one of the PMs-in-waiting apparently, that’s how he has styled himself (if Sg Buluh comes into the picture earlier). Of course he has to content with other contenders ( Ku Li may be?)If he loses then he may yet again jump ship out of frustrations.

My take again. Given the PM’s high ratings after one year, and his successful US trip and the woes of PKR, the BN will win hands down.


norzah said...

I would agree with your prediction on the outcome of the Hulu Selangor by-election, Kk, but for the fact that Palani's supporters seemed very frustrated. Being equated with the semi-valued President may also take its toll. Still, the majority of the electorate are Malays and it is how they see the PKR candidate that will determine the outcome.Salam.

kaykuala said...

Sdr Norzah,
The choice of Kamal meets aspiration of all communities. Apparently Palani may be offered Senatorship to appease his supporters. Yes, Semi Value is a liability.

Hopefully those ex UMNO turned opposition sympathisers will come back as it is now a new PM unlike GE12.

kaykuala said...

Postcript: True to form, BN won. From a big constituency of 63,701 voters, BN garnered 24,997 while Pakatan had a close 23,272 giving a majority of 1,725 to BN. It was also reported today that Palanivel is to be made a Senator.
Who says political outcomes are difficult to predict? Not in Malaysia it appears!